The Numbers on the US Open

Filed in archive Golf News on June 17, 2007

Courtesy: Steve Gibbons/USGA

As I write this, the final round of the US Open has yet to be played out. But I think it's reasonable to predict a winner at this point.

If you examine the statistics of this US Open, you find the reason why some players are on the leaderboard and doing well one day and then fall off the leaderboard the next day.

It's all about fairways hit and greens in regulation at Oakmont.

And the two stats are working in tandem at this championship.

Fred funk leads all comers in fairways hit. In round one, Funk found the fairways 79% of the time; in round two, 71% of the time. It was in round 3 that Funk fell to 64%.

Still, that's amazing accuracy from Mr. Consistent. However, he has not been able to find the same accuracy with his second and third shots into the green. There, Funk lies 40th overall. His second round saw him hit just 39% of the GIRs.

That's why he's not the leader. The other reason is that, once on the green, Funk can't find the cup on the slippery fast Oakmont putting surfaces. Each of the three rounds has seen Funk's numbers rise: 30, 32, and 33 respectively.

Fred Funk is an example of how leading one important statistic doesn't translate into an appearance in the top ten on the leaderboard. There are many other players in the same boat.

Canadian Stephen Ames had equally good numbers to Funk when it came to fairways hit: 79% in round one and that did put him in the top ten. But the number fell to 57% and then 50% in round three.

His GIR numbers, though, are strong and he ranked 11th after round three. Ames has been flirting with the top five throughout the tournament and his number of putts per round demonstrates he has a feel for Oakmont's greens.

That's why Ames was in contention after round three, just three shots behind Aaron Baddeley.

Ironically, Badds' numbers when it comes to fairways hit is not that great. He's been a steady 57% since round one.

His GIR numbers are only so-so, as well; in fact, his best round was the second when he hit 11 greens in regulation.

But when he's on the greens, the Aussie leads the tournament in putts-per-round. That's why he led after round three.

And that's also why Tiger Woods was chasing, heading into Sunday's final round. His putts-per-round were higher than Baddeley's.

But he and Badds are a tie when it comes to fairways hit. Where Tiger excels is in GIRs. He was the leader in that category after three rounds, meaning his iron play into the greens is better than Baddeley's and everyone else's too.

So my prediction for Sunday is this (and we'll see at the end of the day if I'm right!): Baddeley will continue to struggle to find the putting surface in regulation. That will put pressure on his putting stroke on the final day of the US Open.

Tiger will continue to manage his game superbly and his irons will not quit in the final round. His putting stroke will be razor sharp and the putts will start to drop for him finally.

Paul Casey will make a push and fall back; likewise, Stephen Ames.

In the end, it will be Woods winning by virtue of his magnificent iron play, short game and excellent putting stroke under pressure.

Or I'm a monkey's uncle.